by Christopher Kevill
|  | With just one month to go until the election, the race for the White House is heating up. Recent polls are showing the two candidates are in a very tight race, with Obama now enjoying only a small lead in some polls. President Barack Obama is attempting to win a second term in office for the Democrats despite a very sluggish economy that yet to fully bounce back after financial meltdown in 2008. The ongoing economic malaise in the US has created a golden political opportunity for his Republican opponent, former businessman and Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.
For the past couple of years, I have thought that Obama's chances for re-election were fairly good. In an article I posted in the run-up to the mid-term |
elections in 2010, I briefly noted how the favourable placement of Jupiter and Rahu in November 2012 suggested that he stood a good chance for winning. Other factors also suggested that Obama had a good chance for a second term but a lot would depend on the horoscope of his opponent.
Analyzing charts for elections can be complicated. As all astrologers know, there are any number of potentially useful techniques one can use to predict election outcomes. But how do we know which ones work and which ones don't? Since astrology lacks the organizational discipline of a proper science, this laborious sifting process is pretty much just trial and error. There are no proven reliable methods that will work 100% of the time and many techniques probably only work slightly more than a coin toss (50-50) would predict. In fact, I think that some techniques don't work at all and often yield results that are no better than flipping a coin. One example of an incorrect or flawed method occurred at the time of the 2004 US election between Bush and Kerry. The vast majority of astrologers predicted John Kerry would win, in part, because of apparently positive conjunction of transiting Venus (happiness) and Jupiter (reward, achievement) on his Midheaven (10th house cusp). According to most western astrological theory, this should have coincided with a positive result in career matters and a boost in status. Many Indian astrologers likewise thought that this benefic planetary pairing in the 11th whole sign house of gains would produce a victory for the Democrats. But they were wrong and Bush won. As the late Richard Houck liked to remind me, transits are only one part of the overall puzzle and they are usually not the determining factor in elections. A candidate may have apparently good transits, but that could represent things other than victory. It could symbolize being in the spotlight (win or lose) or just feeling relieved at completing the long and arduous campaign. Following Houck's teachings, I have found that a judicious use of progressions, dashas and a few other techniques are probably more decisive in these matters. It was because of my focus on non-transit factors that I correctly predicted a Bush win in 2004.
As I have documented over the past three years, Obama's horoscope suggested that he would face many difficulties and have a tough go of it in his first term.
His approval ratings have hovered around 50% which is historically quite low. Much of the problem has been due to his dashas. Although he is running his favourable Jupiter dasha, his minor dasha periods have been more challenging. In 2009, he was in Jupiter-Mars, and then in 2010 he entered Jupiter-Rahu which is still running now. He won the election in 2008 while running the more clearly positive Jupiter-Moon period. The problem for Obama is that both minor period lords for the past three years, Mars and Rahu, are placed in his 8th house, representing obstacles, embarrassments and overall bad luck. I believe this is an important source of his low approval ratings and ongoing problems dealing with the economy.
Regardless of whether Obama's policies are the cause of the country's poor performance, the Jupiter-Rahu influence here does not address the question of ultimate responsibility. It merely looks at outcomes. | | |
What is interesting here is that Obama has switched dasha periods right in the middle of the campaign. According to the Krishnamurti ayanamsha, his Saturn dasha began in late June. Interestingly, the Supreme Court decision that upheld Obamacare came down on 28 June, the very day that the Saturn dasha began. This decision was a very favourable to Obama and vindicated a major policy initiative. (According to Lahiri, the Saturn dasha started in late July). While Saturn can be quite a nasty planet, Obama's Saturn is actually very strong and largely beneficial, at least as a dasha lord. Saturn is placed in the 1st house in the sign of Capricorn, which it rules. This forms a powerful royal Sasha Yoga. In addition, Saturn is conjunct benefic Jupiter and opposite benefic Mercury. Its association with benefics further enhances its positive side while reducing its capacity for harm. While Saturn is retrograde, I would nonetheless expect somewhat positive results to flow during Saturn's dasha. Of course, the Saturn period lasts 19 years, so that is a rather large timescale to deal with. It is so long that is may not even have a direct bearing on the outcome in November. But I would still consider it a plus nonetheless, and perhaps most importantly, it is better than Rahu.
The ashtakavarga system of planetary strength provides another intriguing piece of evidence that supports the re-election of Obama. For the past two years, Saturn has been transiting Virgo. According to Obama's ashtakavarga chart, Virgo is a very weak sign and Saturn does not draw any bindu strength there. While it is not uncommon for Saturn to only draw 1 or 2 bindus in a weak sign, it is more uncommon to have none at all. This is perhaps another reason why Obama has had such a tough time with the economy. With Saturn transiting Virgo, Obama was arguably working at a disadvantage. However, Saturn left Virgo and entered the sign of Libra on August 2. In Libra, Saturn is strengthened since it is exalted in this sign. More specifically, Obama's Saturn in Libra is much stronger because it draws 4 bindus there. (The maximum number of bindus is 8) This added bindu strength to the dasha lord Saturn is another reason to expect Obama to prevail in the election in November.
| | As I mentioned earlier, Obama's transits look pretty good on election day. Transits usually aren't decisive by themselves, but we still need to assess them in light of the other chart factors. Transiting Jupiter will be retrograde at 21 Taurus and will therefore be in a fairly close trine to his ascendant. Even better, Jupiter will be in a near exact trine with his relocated MC in Washington. Transiting Rahu will be close to his natal MC which is often a good placement for those seeking status and high public profile. Moreover, Rahu-Ketu will be in a tight aspect with Saturn, the dasha lord and his lagnesh (i.e. the ruler of his 1st house). This transit is a positive influence as I see it. Recall that transiting Ketu was conjunct Obama's Sun on election day on 2008. While the nodes are |
more unreliable in terms of transit effects, Obama can benefit from such transits by Rahu and Ketu.
Transiting Saturn complicates the picture somewhat by virtue of its tight square to 6th lord Mercury. This is usually a heavy transit associated with depression and frustration. It is definitely not the first thing an astrologer looks for when forecasting an election win. And yet it may not be decisive here because Saturn is not so bad in Obama's chart. It could also reflect some difficulties on election day and shortly thereafter. Since Mercury turns retrograde on the day of the election on November 6, it is tempting to think about some unpredictable situations that may arise around the administration of the election. Mercury had a similar direct station on the day of the famously indecisive 2000 election between Bush and Gore. When Mercury is stationary in this way around a key event, it can introduce confusion and foul ups. A replay of the contested 2000 election is therefore possible here, although there are a wide range of possible scenarios with this pattern. There could be disputed voters' lists, or even a tie in the Electoral College which would lead to a period of uncertainty as the state delegations in the House of Representatives would have to decide the final outcome. The likelihood for some kind of problem is made more likely because Mercury will be in a close 30-degree aspect with Saturn (distortion, depression) and in a wide square with Neptune (deception, lack of clarity).
| The progressions offer more positive evidence for an Obama win in November. While secondary progressions are important, they tend to move too slowly for my liking. Tertiaries tend to produce clearer hits since the angles and inner planets move at a rate of about one degree per month. We can see that there is a multi-planet alignment involving a Mars-Pluto conjunction and a square to both Mercury and Venus. What's noteworthy here is that his relocated chart in Washington moves Mercury and Venus to the ascendant. This is another plus. There is also a Sun-Moon conjunction that conjoins his natal Venus in Gemini in this progressed chart. Venus is a natural benefic planet and has the added feature of ruling the 10th house of status. | | |
Moreover, the relocated angles (Asc/MC) highlight this Venus and hence the progressed Moon and Sun also. In my view, this is a generally powerful and positive pattern.
One thing that is missing, however, is the occurrence of progressed stations in Obama’s chart. Richard Houck liked to say that winner's charts usually had the necessary "torque" from planets at their progressed stations. Stations were times when planets were at their maximum strength and often correlated with significant life events. Direct stations were usually preferable to retrograde stations, and benefics preferable to malefics. Obama has no progressions stations here, so that is one potential area of weakness at election day. That said, I do note that he at least has something that could be analogous: a progressed station of the Sun in declination. Obama's tertiary progressed Sun achieves its point of maximum northern declination at 23N24 in November 2012. This is another piece of evidence that makes me think that Obama will win. As an added enhancement to Obama's chances, I should also note that VP Joe Biden has a direct station of tertiary progressed Neptune in the 11th house in October.
| | What about Mitt Romney, the millionaire businessman and former governor of Massachusetts? Romney has a powerful chart in 2012 as he is running Sun-Mercury dasha from March 2012 until the election. Both planets are well-placed in the 10th house of status and leadership. It's worth noting that his Mercury minor period began in March just as he finally fended off a formidable challenge from Rick Santorum in the Republican primaries. Clearly, Mercury is a positive planet for Romney. But is it enough to win him the presidency? One possible shortcoming in his chart is that Mercury is retrograde and conjunct 12th lord of losses, Mars. The other potential problem is that neither dasha lord Sun nor Mercury receives a helpful transiting aspect at the time of the election. |
In fact, the Sun receives a difficult square aspect from 12th lord Mars on November 6. The 12th lord is usually unhelpful in this regard and may be interpreted as a negative influence.
| Like Obama, Romney also has to contend with the full weight of a Saturn aspect. In Romney's case, Saturn aspects its natal position near his IC (unequal 4th house cusp) by full strength square aspect. Saturn does rule the 10th house in his chart, so that is positive, but generally I don't like to see aspects to the IC in this manner. The 4th house is the bottom of the chart and is sometimes referred to as "the end of things". On the plus side, Romney's relocated chart to his current residence in Boston shows that transiting Jupiter will conjoin his ascendant. This is rarely a bad thing. Whether or not it functions as one of those superficially positive Kerry-esque influences remains to be seen. I tend to think it won't matter that much in the final analysis. | | |
| | Mercury turns retrograde on election night at 10 degrees of sidereal Scorpio. This will be very close to Romney's 7th house cusp opposite his ascendant and conjunct Ketu. The Mercury-Ketu contact is not something that makes me think of victory. Rather, it looks more like something is unclear or even unfinished, especially given the wide square with transiting Neptune. It is possible that this pattern could reflect some election day snafu given the whole Mercury Rx scenario, although it may simply reflect dissolving (Ketu) of Romney's electoral (Mercury) dreams (Neptune).
Romney's secondary progressions show an impressively dense pattern involving Sun, Mercury, Venus and Mars all in tight aspect with the natal Moon-Jupiter conjunction. That alignment is very powerful but there is no station here that would make me think he is going to unseat Obama from the White House. The tertiary progressions also lack any tell-tale stations so that further reduces the probability of a Republican win. Tertiary progressed Mars made a declination station back in March but its energy was likely all used up on defeating Santorum. Moreover, we can see that his relocated chart features a fairly nasty looking Mars-Neptune square that is highlighted by the progressed angles. This is not what you want when the |
decision for a competition is coming down. It's hard for me to see how Romney can win under these progressed patterns.
Campaign Charts Compared
Another layer to the election is provided by the respective campaign charts of the two candidates. Just as individuals have horoscopes, so, too, do political campaigns. The moment that a candidate declares he or she is running for office, a horoscope can be cast. The resulting chart itself can reveal something about the nature of the forthcoming endeavour as well as providing some insight about the likelihood of success. And since the campaign chart also acts like a birth chart, we can often see both positive and negative trends in the campaign through transit hits to the natal chart.
Mitt Romney declared his candidacy for president on 2 June 2011 at 1.16 pm at Stratham, New Hampshire. The resulting chart has sidereal Leo rising with Mercury, Sun, Moon and Ketu in the 10th house in Taurus. Actually, the candidacy was declared just one day after a solar eclipse. This is neither good nor bad in itself, but perhaps underlines the notion of the importance of the task at hand. Normally, the Sun-Moon conjunction in the 10th house is quite good for enjoying high status and profile. One can easily make the argument that Romney's presidential campaign would do that, win or lose. Ketu is the odd man out here, as it introduces a large measure of uncertainty and unpredictability. Ketu (i.e. the South Lunar Node) is usually a problematic influence when it is placed in the 10th house where achievements are blocked or disappointed, although there are occasions when it can still resonate with success, although only through unusual means. The other problem here is that the Moon-Ketu conjunction sits very close to the equal 10th house cusp (27 Taurus). Since the Moon rules the 12th house of loss (Cancer), this is a negative influence on the 10th house. The weakness in this chart is also evident from the fact that the 10th house ruler, Venus, is placed back in the 9th house with Mars. The 11th house (gains) is also fairly unremarkable as its ruler, Mercury is in the 10th house, but sits a ways off all the action with the Sun and Moon. Saturn is in a close trine aspect with the Sun here, so I take that as another source of weakness in this chart.
| | But interpreting the natal chart is admittedly a somewhat speculative venture. There are always exceptions to "rules" and there are large gray areas of interpretation. I find transit hits to natal charts are often more illustrative and insightful. In the past two weeks, we have seen Romney stumble in a series of gaffes. He was widely criticized by both Democrats and Republicans for trying to score political points on the same day that the US Consulate was attacked in Benghazi, Libya and the ambassador was murdered. A few days later, an embarrassing video was leaked to the media that showed Romney essentially writing off 47% of the potential voters as Obama supporters who received some kind of government handout and who were incapable of self-reliance. The video was embarrassing because it |
solidified the perception that Romney is part of a wealthy elite who is out of touch with the daily reality of the average American. While the Obama campaign took full advantage of the video, even some conservatives admitted it painted Romney in a bad light. Interestingly, Romney's leaked video problem is basically the result of the position of Mars in the campaign chart. Transiting Mars (22 Libra) is exactly opposite the natal Mars (22 Aries) of this candidacy horoscope. As astrological transits go, this is about as bankable as they come. Mars-to-Mars oppositions are only very rarely positive and usually negative and describe situations and events that are marked by conflict, frustration and stress.
Romney's campaign has been sputtering ever since the late August convention. Interestingly, we can see that transiting Ketu has been conjunct Mercury for most of that September post-convention period. Ketu often has a disruptive effect on Mercury's need to communicate, so we have seen a series of miscues and false starts from Romney such as his inappropriately partisan remarks from the Libya consulate attack.
| Not surprisingly, we can also see how the Obama campaign chart may be enjoying its recent September bounce. Obama declared his candidacy for re-election on 3 April 2011 at 9.33 in Chicago, IL (hat tip to Patrick Watson for uncovering this data). Just looking at the transits at the time of the leaked video on September 17, we can see that Obama has no Mars problem at all. In fact, his campaign chart appeared to be in the thrall of a very nice Venus transit through his 10th house of status. And look how Venus in Cancer was trine his conjunction of the Sun and Jupiter! It's just a couple degrees early, but it is one of those fairly reliable positive transits that usually correspond with success and | |  |
happiness. This success is borne out by the polls, some of which show Obama now enjoys a 5-point lead, his widest in some months.
| | Looking ahead to the day of the election on 6 November, Romney’s campaign chart contains a couple of difficult transits. Transiting Mars (28 Scorpio) is conjunct Rahu in the 4th house. This is also opposite the Moon (27 Taurus) and would seem to suggest stressful or antagonistic situations that seem at odds with a successful outcome of a campaign. Transiting Sun (20 Libra) is also opposed to Mars (22 Aries) and points to more conflict and perhaps even disputes surrounding the election outcome. To be sure, transiting Jupiter will be coming back towards its conjunction with the Sun and will be just three degrees away. However, Venus is the dispositor of Jupiter and the Sun, and it is fallen in Virgo and in |
a close one degree conjunction with natal Saturn at this time. This suggests that the otherwise favourable Jupiter-Sun conjunction may be less powerful than it otherwise might be.
| In the Obama campaign chart, we can see that the Sun will be close to the ascendant on 6 November. This is arguably a better placement for signaling victory, especially since the Sun rules the 11th house (Leo). The 11th house represents gains and success. As in the Romney chart, transiting Venus is also very close to natal Saturn in this chart, but there is a difference. Saturn is in a close opposition to Sun, Jupiter and Moon in the natal chart. Therefore, transiting Venus will not only conjoin Saturn, but it will also aspect those planets in Pisces at the time of the election. Venus is generally a favourable influence, particularly to planets in the sign of its exaltation, Pisces. Transiting Jupiter will also form an | | |
aspect to Saturn at this time, so there some reason to expect a more constructive outcome for Obama.
Overall, I would say that both the natal and the campaign charts favour an Obama win over Romney. While both candidates have their fair share of favourable and unfavourable transits, Obama’s dashas and progressions seem stronger than Romney’s. The evidence is perhaps less clear cut than one would like, and that is one reason why some astrologers may arrive at a different conclusion. Perhaps this is a reflection of the role of Mercury turning retrograde on the day of the election. In the famously indecisive 2000 election, Mercury completed its retrograde cycle and went direct on the day of the election. This sparked an unprecedented period of uncertainty and political wrangling marked by endless recounts and ultimately a Supreme Court decision five weeks later that awarded the presidency to George Bush. Some astrologers have suggested that a similar period of post-election uncertainty is very possible this time around. Certainly, the race is close enough this time around that some kind of confusion or dispute around the final outcome is a very real possibility. That said, it is also possible that the Mercury retrograde may not have any direct correlation with the election. Therefore, I am taking more of an agnostic position on the whole Mercury retrograde question. While I would not make any specific predictions because of it, I would also not be surprised by any unusual developments that may arise on the evening of November 6.
| | Christopher Kevill Biography:
Christopher Kevill is a neo-Vedic astrologer based in Toronto, Canada. He has been a student of astrology for 15 years.
His website is http://modernvedicastrology.com.
He may be contacted by email at [email protected] |
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